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Why I have no fear of the Reds:
5/26/2010 - 26-20
5/26/2009 - 26-20 => Finished 78-84
5/26/2006 - 27-21 => Finished 80-82
5/26/2004 - 27-19 => Finished 76-86
5/26/2003 - 25-26 => Finished 69-93
5/26/2002 - 29-21 => Finished 78-84
5/26/2000 - 27-20 => Finished 85-77 (2nd in Div and out of the WC)
They have such a pattern of collapse, that I have virtually no fear that the Cubs will be battling only the Cardinals for the division.
I got nothin'.
Andy
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And we're already starting to see the fruits of Dusty's labor in the form of Bailey getting hurt, and I am sure more will follow. However, he can be replaced with Chapman, so not sure if that makes them much worse. I have to say, though, they do have an impressive group of young players, yet still are average at best in run production. Their pitching overall is actually a lot worse than I assumed (4.61 ERA, .264 BAA, and they give up quite a few HR), so they have a ton of flaws. Their defense and rotation are solid though.
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Im not so sure I'd call their rotation solid, it still looks pretty thin to me. Obviously they have a lot of young potential, but other than Leake everyone has struggled and/or is hurt. If Volquez was healthy, their rotation would look a lot better, as is its kind of all 3,4,5 starter types to me. Last time I checked Chapman also had a 4+ ERA with like a 1.6 WHIP in the minors too.
Their rotation only ranks 12th out of 16 in the NL in ERA I still don't see it as far as talent goes for them like others seem to. Sure if Bailey and Cueto and Volquez were all healthy and pitching like people thought they could a few years back..... but they aren't and really never have other than the one season from Volquez.
I think right now a good bullpen, good defense and hot starts by guys like Rolen, Hannigan and Gomes are fueling them along with Votto who is raking as awlays. But as Andy said they do the same thing almost every year. Cueto, Harang and Arroyo all have thrown a shitload of pitches too.
Id still be willing to bet a large sum of money they will not be in the race down the stretch.
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Are the Reds different this year?
I had thought that the Reds 2010 success was primarily built off improvements in starting pitching and defense. Thought that this difference would be short-lived as Dusty would have his starters pitch 120+ pitches in spring games and have little more than 6-9 starts from Chapman as his summer reinforcements for his rotation.
I guess I should have probably checked stats before going off half-cocked. Only 1 Reds pitcher (Harang) is in the top 20 NL leaders in pitches per game. In addition to that eye opener, the Reds ERA is about a 0.4 runs higher this year than 2009.
How did the Reds improve? According to the following article, the most significant difference in 2010 Reds compared to the 2009 Reds is their offense.
The article points out that 7 of 8 position players have increased their 2010 OPS+ compared to 2009 with the most significant increases for Rolen and Gomes.
http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/tmi-mlb/post?id=3371
So are the Reds for real? No clue. One weakness that I thought could be exploited has already been overcome so far this year.
Can we get someone to visit Mr. Rolen and pull a Tonya Harding/Nancy Kerrigan on him? The guy already has an injury history so it probably wouldn't take more than a couple of whacks.
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Chapman is not ready to make an impact at the major league level.
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All in all, I would agree. They don't have enough depth in any one area to be able to hang around until September. One more injury and they are most likely screwed.
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Last year, the Reds had a huge amount of injuries in the middle of the season. The entire infield was out at the same time. All but Brandon Phillips for an extended time. Jay Brunce, Willy Tavarez, Harang, Cueto and Volquez as well. The Reds got Rolen, and then he went on the DL. Once Rolen came back, they ended the season pretty well.
I like you guys a lot.
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They always start out hot. I don't see them keeping it up either.
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<!--quoteo(post=98384:date=May 26 2010, 09:46 AM:name=1060Ivy)-->QUOTE (1060Ivy @ May 26 2010, 09:46 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Are the Reds different this year?
I had thought that the Reds 2010 success was primarily built off improvements in starting pitching and defense. Thought that this difference would be short-lived as Dusty would have his starters pitch 120+ pitches in spring games and have little more than 6-9 starts from Chapman as his summer reinforcements for his rotation.
I guess I should have probably checked stats before going off half-cocked. Only 1 Reds pitcher (Harang) is in the top 20 NL leaders in pitches per game. In addition to that eye opener, the Reds ERA is about a 0.4 runs higher this year than 2009.
How did the Reds improve? According to the following article, the most significant difference in 2010 Reds compared to the 2009 Reds is their offense.
The article points out that 7 of 8 position players have increased their 2010 OPS+ compared to 2009 with the most significant increases for Rolen and Gomes.
http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/tmi-mlb/post?id=3371
So are the Reds for real? No clue. One weakness that I thought could be exploited has already been overcome so far this year.
Can we get someone to visit Mr. Rolen and pull a Tonya Harding/Nancy Kerrigan on him? The guy already has an injury history so it probably wouldn't take more than a couple of whacks.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
In addition to Chapman 6 - 9 starts, Edinson Volquez, the cheater, is expected back in July.
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<!--quoteo(post=98441:date=May 26 2010, 02:06 PM:name=funkster)-->QUOTE (funkster @ May 26 2010, 02:06 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->They always start out hot. I don't see them keeping it up either.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
+1
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If the Reds add a serious bat before the deadline, they could wind up in a much better boat than Milwaukee. If I were Jocketty, I'd be seeing if Dye would come back ot play for that same $3-4M we offered back in the winter. He'd give the Reds a power boost, and he wouldn't even cost them anything more than salary. Dye in the 5 lot for the Reds would make them deeper and tougher to beat. While some have questions about their pitching, Chapman and 2 others are going to be joinging the team by July, and some of their guys are clearly doing the job. If the Reds stay injury free, this N.L. Central could well wind up a 3-team race (assuming Lee and ARAM eventually do actually hit).
"Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of Truth and Knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods." Albert Einstein
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I've lived in the Louisville, KY area for 12 years now...seen the Reds start strong and fade fast, they are probably on their way out now.
Just watched Chapman pitch Thursday night, if they call him up that will be a huge mistake. Sure he's impressive, but not as impressive as his catcher, you gotta have arms like a windmill and able to see into the future to catch his wild pitches.
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Welcome Yoshiki. Louisville, KY huh? I hear it's a shithole.
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<!--quoteo(post=99357:date=Jun 1 2010, 03:13 PM:name=Coldneck)-->QUOTE (Coldneck @ Jun 1 2010, 03:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}><!--quotec-->Welcome Yoshiki. Louisville, KY huh? I hear it's a shithole.<!--QuoteEnd--><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yeah, too many ^$&%* Reds fans!!!!
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